SACRAMENTO – The 2010 election was supposed to be the ballot swan song for Inland Southern California’s 32nd Senate District, a Pomona-to-San Bernardino seat crafted more than a decade ago and set to expire in 2014.
But the November election of former state Sen. Gloria Negrete McLeod to Congress means the 32nd will be on voters’ ballots at least one more time. If no candidate gets a majority of the vote in a special election Tuesday, there will be a May 14 runoff between the top two finishers.
The latter seems likely with six candidates vying for the seat: Democrats Paul Vincent Avila, an Ontario councilman; Joanne Gilbert of Rialto, a retired teacher; Assemblywoman Norma Torres of Pomona; San Bernardino County Auditor-Controller Larry Walker, of Chino; and Republicans Kenny Coble, of Pomona, a planning commissioner; and Ontario Mayor Paul Leon.
The winner will run for re-election in 2014 in the new 20th Senate District, which covers much of the same territory as the 32nd.
Among the poorest districts in the state, the 32nd also has some of the lowest voting rates. Some Republicans say that creates the chance for a GOP upset in a special election. Democrats dismiss GOP prospects, noting the party’s nearly 25-percentatge point registration lead in the district.
Underlining the contest, meanwhile, is San Bernardino County’s divisive Democratic politics. Torres backed former Rep. Joe Baca over Negrete McLeod in last fall’s congressional race, and Negrete McLeod, D-Chino, is strongly supporting Walker against Torres.
Torres, Leon and Walker have emerged as the front-runners for the 32nd. The question is whether Torres and Walker will advance to the May runoff or which Democrat will face Leon.
It’s not the only state Senate district with a special election Tuesday.
Voters in the 40th Senate District, which includes part of the Coachella Valley, will vote for a successor to former state Sen. Juan Vargas, who also went to Congress. Assemblyman Ben Hueso, D-San Diego, seems likely to win outright Tuesday.
CANDIDATES
Torres has been endorsed by the California Democratic Party and has raised far more than any of the other candidates, collecting at least $352,000 as of earlier this week. Businesses, tribes and union groups have poured in another $365,000 in independent expenditures to help Torres.
Torres, a former police dispatcher elected to the Assembly in 2008, has never represented roughly 60 percent of the 32nd. In an interview, she said she is nevertheless confident that she will finish first Tuesday and again in May.
“They see me as someone who has always had an open-door policy for anyone and everyone. I’m very accessible,” she said of supporters. “I think that shows from the groups that are supporting me, from business groups, to labor organizations, to other constituencies.”
Of Walker, she said, “He is well-known by the political machine. But he is hardly known by the people who matter in this election.”
Walker, a longtime elected official in the country, has the support of San Bernardino County supervisors and other elected officials, as well as county employee unions and other groups in the county portion of the district.
Walker, though, has raised only about a third as much as Torres and has been the focus of critical mailers by independent expenditure committees.
“My goal has always been to serve the community and accomplish results,” he said. “I think people recognize that when there’s an avalanche of money, that Sacramento interests are not interested in having an independent thinker up there.”
Leon is another longtime local elected official and had raised more than $203,000 through early this week, which stands out in a district where Republican candidates – none bothered to run in 2006 – have collected almost no money.
The district includes the home of former Inland lawmaker Jim Brulte, the newly elected chairman of the California Republican Party who has said the party needs to compete in places it used to ignore. Leon is Latino and the 32nd’s population is mostly Latino.
Yet Senate Republicans so far have not invested money into the contest.
“We pretty much exhausted all our resources in the last election,” Minority Leader Bob Huff, R-Diamond Bar said. Huff praised Leon, adding, “The fact that he can raise money from the district speaks a lot stronger than all of the money flooding in from Sacramento special interests that are trying to prop up business as usual.”
Leon said he has been disappointed by what he called a lack of caucus attention to his candidacy but said he thinks the special election “levels the playing field.”
“My friends and donors believe in me,” Leon said. “They believe my reaching this destination will improve the condition of the state Legislature.”
Jason Kinney, a spokesman for Senate Democrats, said the caucus has endorsed Torres and has “every confidence that Norma Torres is going to do extremely well on Tuesday and ultimately be this district's next senator.”
TURNOUT
A potential wildcard is that voter participation is expected to be dismal next week.
“What we all share is our biggest competitor is voter apathy,” Torres said of her fellow candidates.
During the 2009 statewide special election, less than 17 percent of 32nd District voters cast ballots — and that was after then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, legislative leaders and others spent weeks campaigning on television and radio for several budget-related measures.
Voters also could be confused. There was a March 5 election in Rialto, one of the largest cities in the 32nd, as well as in some Los Angeles County cities.
“I had one person call and wish me good luck today,” Walker said March 5.
